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DoD Intelligence Fails Occam's Razor

This is perhaps one of more amusing failure of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) intelligence in recent times. Couldn't find the link, but within the last year or so an intelligence report was put out warning against fake Canadian coins containing radio frequency (RF) transmitters for the purpose of espionage or surveillance. Well, it turns out those reports were grossly overstated. According to CNN.com, a special series of "poppy" quarters were released in 2004 by the Royal Canadian Mint to commemorate those lost to war. Apparently the DoD didn't get the memo.

What is perhaps most egregious here is the failure of the DoD to apply a mote of common sense, such as in applying Occam's Razor. According to the CNN.com article, the defense contractors who "discovered" these "suspicious" coins performed a very detailed analysis of the pieces. Unfortunately, they came to conclusions that were, well, rather far-fetched. Maybe they had been reading spy novels and let their imaginations run away with them. I just find it sad that the level of analysis described could occur with the end-result being issuance of a warning about spy coins that had no basis in the facts determined. Talk about a major disconnect between reality and imagination.



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Comments (1)

Since the Canadian Mint often issues special coins, and since this is a big event in the numismatic world, this failure of intelligence is really, as you say, a failure of common sense. There was nothing covert about issuing these coins. Showing them to a Canadian would have produced an "Oh yea" reaction.

These were issued though Tim Hortons, so most Canadians are well aware of them.

So what is it with these guys? They are off in world that has little connection to the one the rest of us live in.

How will they react to the Ruby Throated Humming Bird quarters, I wonder?

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